One of the questions I am frequently asked when people join
the service, is how they can get the most out of it…
Whilst TVB is sold as a tipping service, you will all know
by now that I try to make it a good deal more than that…
Obviously the tips are the headline act – the primary thing
on which the service is judged from the outside - but what about the write-ups;
the reviews; the mentions and the Top Picks…?
What I want to ‘discuss’ here, is the methods that people
have found, to make the service work best for them
I am aware of lots of different ways that people use the output – but which are the most profitable..?
I am aware of lots of different ways that people use the output – but which are the most profitable..?
Many of you simply allocate a point value and follow the
tips – which is how you would follow conventional tipsters – but this probably
isn’t the optimum strategy when following TVB…
I know others who back all tips – plus all mentions and all
Top Picks !
Yet again there are some who just cherry pick selections,
based on their own thoughts and the case I put forward in the write-up…
I’m aware of some who ignore my suggested staking and stake
a fixed amount on each tip: and others who decide themselves whether to back
EW, regardless of what I suggest…
Some lay off in-running – either to recover stakes or to try
and make a profit…
Whilst a few just like to read my ramblings and don’t bother
investing at all !
I’m not saying that any particular method is best – but it
would be nice to hear about the methods that each of you use and whether you feel
they have improved your profitability (compared to just following the
tips/staking that I recommend)…
For what it’s worth, if I were using the service, I think I
would do as follows…
I would decide on the value of a point – and follow all
tips/suggested stakes when issued – but at half stakes.
I would then top up/save on dangers, depending on what was
written about each tip in the write up.
I would follow mentions which had a strong case made for
them – probably more so when things were going well (probably to 0.25pt).
I would also follow all Top Picks with a BOG bookmaker
(probably to 0.5pt). These should be relatively low risk – and as a lot of them
will drift, they might help protect bookmaker accounts, even if they don’t actually
make a profit !
So that’s how I think I would use the output – but how do
you all play it…?!
A.
Hi, Will be interested to hear what others say. I do follow the advised tips to advised stakes, with the hope that at a predetermined point I can increase the value of a point. To be honest I have been watching the mentions and top picks but have not yet felt they would be profitable to follow, but as I don't religously check this is only a perception. I do enjoy dutching and am not bothered backing three or more but generally have not felt the write ups are that persuasive except on rare occassions. I will reflect on what you have said about the way you might follow the service and as I say will be interested in others opinions who may have been with you for longer. I was also interested in Rowan Days approach which was to back and lay off all tips on the exchanges, which would be really useful if traditional bookies get difficult to back with!
ReplyDeleteHi Andrew. I'm guilty of simply following the tips in the conventional way (albeit with the use if in-running lays on Betfair) and have long felt that there was a lot of great information in the write ups that could and should be utilised. I've never felt the confidence in my own ability to start any kind of cherry picking process though, and this has meant keeping rigidly to the "official" tips.
ReplyDeleteI'd love to hear what others are doing...
Cheers,
Rowan
Hi,this is my first year with the service and have to say it is an excellent service for any NH enthusiast,It took me a while to get to grips with everything and I exchanged quiet a few emails with Andrew about the best approach,as he says its entirely upto yourself,I do think though that any horse that is mentioned has to be taken notice of,I follow all tips to advised stakes I started combining the tips in small ew multiples also which is showing a profit since 1 December,lately I have started to back all double figure tips each way,I backed all the mentions and top picks for a while but now pick and choose,I will eventually settle on a set approach but am happy to try a few things out.Above all I find it a unique service and probably the best advice/info you will get on NH racing anywhere.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the response Adrian.
ReplyDeleteI suspect your approach is the most common – and I can fully understand that.
For information: I monitored the mentions closely in the first month of the service – and they would have made a small profit (around 10%) to the best price available when I decided not to issue them as tips !
I’ve not checked them since that point, as I tried to learn from the first month and convert the best ones into actual tips !
That said, my suspicion is that they would be running at a loss from that point onwards (I’ve no idea how much of a loss tho).
It is possible that one of the sub groups of mentions might be making a profit (Price, Speculative, Opposition or Conditions) – I don’t honestly know…
The Top Picks are a really interesting area…
I have a feeling that they might represent the future – as it becomes more and more difficult for people to get on with conventional bookmakers at advised prices…
They weren’t doing too well until Sunday – but after a couple of winners are now about 4pts up on 16pt staked.
It is far too early to form a judgement on them – I would need to keep them going until the end of the season before I was prepared to do that.
However, they have shown some promise (there have been 4 winners and 3 seconds from the 16 tips).
Furthermore, their chances of success have been compromised a little since I started them up, as a number of the best tips that I have issued have been standard tips and not Top Picks (the likes of Come on Annie and Freckle Face).
What I might choose to do from now on is make a horse a Top Pick and a conventional tip, if I simple think it will win (ie. If I’m not tipping it because of the price).
WRT laying off in-running: then this is another interesting area…
I picked up on it last November, when I had 3 big priced horses trade odds on in running and get beaten.
As a result, the adjusted figure for last season were a lot better than the normal figure…
That has not been the case this season – the adjusted figure trail the normal figure by about 10%…
In truth, this is what you would expect. Simply, I was unlucky in the early part of last season.
The other big advantage of in-running lays should be that they reduce variability. That has been the case this season – and is something which I’m sure is of value to some of you.
As a rule though – the bottom line profit shouldn’t be as good using this method (unless the tips are unlucky !).
A.
Hi Rowan,
ReplyDeleteI’m sure you are not alone in having insufficient knowledge to cherry pick the tips – but that’s isn’t what I think that most people should be doing…
The issue with tipping, is that it is a very black and white process…
I find horses: decide if they should be tips: and then decide on the staking…
Furthermore, I often have to go through the last 2 stages of that process very quickly, first thing in the morning (as the bookmaker prices are issued).
Producing the write-up, gives me more time to consider what I should have done…
I do sometimes slightly change my view on things as I’m producing the write-up. Sometimes doubts start to develop; sometimes I become even stronger in my views.
Ofcourse it is too late for me to do much about anything at that point – because by then the tips have been issued !
However, I do try to incorporate my feelings into the write-up – so that people have my considered opinion – as well as my initial ‘knee jerk’ reaction (which has to be made if any of us are going to have any chance of getting a price on some of the horses).
That said, there is little point me putting this information into the write-up if people aren’t going to act on it…
I would estimate that I spend between 1 and 2 hours a day producing the write-up (so around 12 hours a week).
Obviously, part of that is an education type thing (explaining to people, with real examples, how a particular race could be solved), and part of that is an entertainment thing (so that people feel a bit more ‘ownership’ for the horse they are backing) – but part of it should be about the provision of more accurate information, to enable better wagers to be struck…
Clearly, when I suggest in running trade possibilities, that is extra information that people can use: but also, when I express how strongly I feel about a particular tip – or start nominating dangers in a race, this is information that people should be looking to pick up on and use to, if possible, improve their position on a race…
I don’t want to cherry pick examples but if you read the write-ups for when I tipped Tatenen, Top Dancer and Freckle Face, you would wonder how I had staked them all so lowly !
Like I say, the issue I have is that I have to make a very quick decision – both over which horses to tip and how to stake them.
I think I have improved a little with the horses that I am tipping (not so many mentions are winning !): and I think the more rigid approach to staking helped in that area.
However, both remain far from perfect, and could each be improved markedly by good interpretation of the write-up – and subsequent action…
A.
Andrew, This reply is really helpful. I know from personal experience when I have to write things down to explain matters I often think of things I need to check or double check and with your point about the need to get tips out to maximise market prices I will read your write-ups with much greater concentration. I will put aside a maximum additional stake I can use to place on either increasing the stregnth of bets or by hedging on savers. Btw forgot to say how pleased I am to have joined your service.
DeleteHi Liam,
ReplyDeleteThey are kind words – particularly the ways things have been going lately – thank you…
Just to support what you are saying (as I think you have hit the nail on the head): the best approach to using this service is completely down to the individual…
I do hope that simply following advised tips, to advised stakes, will produce a profit at the end of the season. If that’s the case, then everyone will doubtless be happy…
However, there is so much more available – which can be used to increase profits – if people are prepared to look, experiment and tweak.
I’m not talking about having an in depth racing knowledge here – I’m talking about having an ability to interpret the written word.
I know that most of you guys are more than smart enough to read between my lines (I have a vetting process to ensure that !) – and whilst some of you are doubtless struggling for time, I’m sure that working with the output would pay handsome dividends…
At the end of the day, if you only want tips, I produce tips. However, I compromise my own chances of being a successful tipster by insisting that (generally) all tips are issued within an hour long window.
I do that because sitting there until lunchtime monitoring markets, would drive me mad (and doubtless drive you lot mad with me !). I would much rather commit early, express my opinions and then let you decide if positions need to be tweaked, enhanced etc…
At the end of the day, this isn’t about me trying to protect myself or massage numbers. The outside world will judge me primarily on my official figures – and I am happy to accept that. This is about you guys maximising what you can make from the service.
Clearly everybody was going to be happy when the tips issued at 8:30 in the morning where making a very tidy profit – but when the going starts to get a bit tougher, only those who are making the most of the service are likely to still be smiling…
And I like to think that all of my subscribers have a smile permanently etched on their faces J
A.
for me , i think my staking is two low to get involved in mentions , mentions are to me what they are mentions , i dont want 12 horses on a busy day to deal with
ReplyDeletenor does my bank{unless its a big meeting}
for me to bet a mention it would have to carry the same as a 0.25pt win bet to be of any worth and if its to carry that stake it should be a bet
top picks are different and i will have to see how they go as time progreses
if theres a couple in a race i will do a forcast sometimes
i will read to write ups more thouroughly but i put my staking where i was happy with it and dont really want to stake any more.
Hi Dave,
DeleteI think that broadly, I would agree with what you are saying…
The only thing I would add, is in the same way that I can sometimes get the staking a bit wrong, I can also sometimes get the line between tips and mentions wrong…
If I’ve done that, it normally dawns on me as I’m doing the write-up – the challenge of course, is for you to pick up that’s what I’m thinking…!
The other thing to bear in mind with the mentions, is that I issue them a good while before the off, which should give you the opportunity to act on them if circumstances change nearer the race off time (such as non runners, ground changes, market support etc.)…
A.
Hi,
ReplyDeleteI don't like placing any money on a horse unless I know the reason it is a tip,this created a problem when I joined as I was waiting for the write up to see the rational behind a bet and by then the price had usually gone defeating the object of being in a value based service
The main way I use the service is to read the tips and reviews and note any strong form lines or mentioned horses for my future analysis,of course I miss winners but the write ups have been a massive help in my own betting analysis
This is the wettest winter since 1766 and the form is all over the place,a big problem I think is that a lot of trainers must have flooded gallops so fitness of the horses is another worry along with the pace of races and ground conditions
I get the impression that Andrew is getting a bit worried about form but under the circumstances I think he is doing great
Personally Come on Annie and Freckle Face have more than paid for my subscription already and I wouldn't have found them without the TVB write ups which are always a good read and becoming invaluable to me,we are in good hands fellow members
That's a tenner you owe me Andrew!!!
Very good Dave – LOL !
DeleteI think you are in a bit of a minority here, in that you have your own views and use my write-ups/tips to supplement those…
I know there are others who also study the form, as and when time allows (I think Adrian falls into that category, along with Neil, Dan, Jim and Gags – and that’s just off the top of my head).
I honestly think that’s where you want to be, if you are to make the most of the service – but clearly its not where everyone currently sits…
What I want to try and do is make sure that everyone is able to make the most of the service, regardless of whether they study form themselves…
Hopefully this post – and the associated comments, will assist in that aim.
A.
Hi Everyone,I said I will give an example of how I interpreted Andrews write up today and how I bet each horse - 0.25pt ew on Kastani Beach @ 10/1 I felt Andrew made a strong enough case as coming back in trip can often bring improvement and also Andrew mentioned the opposition was weak,0.5pt Win Barrows Brook @ 5/4 and 0.1pt ew newton thistle @ 25/1 In Barrows Brook's case I took on board Andrews opening comments "looks very difficult to beat" I would have staked 1pt but very the weight he was carrying,I placed a small ew on Newton Thistle as he got a small mention.Onto Noble Call 0.2pt win win simply because he was a value call,0.5pt win Knock a hand sp 9/2 good strong mention in my opinion,0.2 win surprise vendor as not so strong mention but worth small bet,0.5pt win the panama kid and 0.2pt win Ros castle,The panama kid as strong mention ros castle as saver,0.5pt win duke of navan strong case made.Total Staked 3.3pts Total Returns 4.55pt Profit +1.25pts Hope everyone can follow above had to speed up as I got down a bit as time was against me
ReplyDeleteThat is fascinating stuff Liam – thanks for sharing it…
DeleteWhat makes it really interesting (for me), is because I know how I felt about each of the mentions – and consequently how I would have staked them.
It is therefore enlightening to read how you have interpreted what I said…
To be honest, I think there are a lot of dangers associated with following mentions – which is why I have sympathy with what Dave said above…
The strongest mention for me today, was probably Surprise Vendor (and I’m not saying that just because he won !) - he was the classic borderline tip.
However, having decided not to tip him, I then went out of my way to justify this course of action in the write-up !
Obviously, this said to you that I wasn’t so keen – but in reality, it was more about me trying to convince myself !
I can’t possibly expect you (or anyone else) to be able to interpret that – but it does illustrate one of the dangers of backing mentions !
All this said, if I mention anything in a race, I think it has a decent chance of winning (I backed all of todays mentions myself – apart from Brown Brook – and that was only because of the price) – so I do believe that there is some merit in what you are trying to do…
When producing the write-up, I try to be as careful as I can with the wording I use – however it should always be put in context:
- The negatives with Surprise Vendor were against a background of him almost being a tip.
- The positives with Browns Brook were against the background of him being an even money shot…
Like I say, very difficult for you to interpret – which is why you need to generally be careful about doing so – even if there is almost certainly some mileage in what you are attempting to do…
A.
Cheers Andrew,I generally don't like backing 5/4 shots in handicaps but couldn't see browns brook being better than evens,I don't have the time to study all the form everyday,I do concentrate on Irish racing more so would have a stronger opinion on that,I would have a fair knowledge of English racing but joined this service for that extra bit which hasn't disappointed.I spend some time studying la liga in Spain also which brings in a few quid,I feel its rewarding to develop your own methods and see them pay off to an extent.
DeleteI think time is an issue for quite a few of the guys in here, Liam…
DeleteI almost view it that you all pay me to invest the time on your behalf !
I don’t think that Browns Brook was a bad 5/4 shot – it’s more like you say, 5/4 in a handicap, with top weight, on heavy ground. I was struggling to find anything to beat him – but all the same..!
You’re absolutely right tho – the key to successful betting is to be prepared to find your own path – or more specifically, go against the crowd.
That’s certainly something I’m always looking to do…
A.
Hello everyone. I've been taking a fairly cautious approach by backing all official bets each-way (assuming they are 6/1 or greater) and laying the selection(s) at 2.02 to recover my stake(s).
ReplyDeleteI’ve also adopted a similar approach for those mentions where the write-up is particularly positive – it’s hard to quantify ‘particularly positive’ but it usually involves at least one exclamation mark in the write up and the words ‘strong mention’ e.g. Hartside
Bets have been staked according to Andrew’s recommendation. According to my records, I’m currently showing an ROI of 11.4% which I’m more than happy with. Interestingly (and assuming my results spreadsheet is configured correctly) had I been using level stakes my ROI would currently be 25.5%, which is probably food for thought…
Clearly whilst the ability to return a profit is important of almost greater value to me is the insight the write-ups provide into the thought processes Andrew uses to read a race. As someone who instinctively backs the obvious (which predictably miserable long term results), the ability to watch and learn from a skilled contrarian has been extremely rewarding and I know that I’m a better bettor as a result.
‘At least one exclamation mark and the words ‘strong mention’’ – that’s brilliant stuff Neil !
DeleteAnd yet – in all seriousness, I think you are spot on…
It is nearly impossible to identify strict rules for the mentions that you should be backing – or the tips that you should be doubling stakes on – but I believe the answers are often in the write-ups – and I think you believe it to…
I honestly think that the key is to read and digest the write-ups every day – as this will enable you to get a true feel for what I am thinking.
Solving the puzzle of a race is not an exact science - and neither is my write-up !
But if you can learn to interpret what I’m writing, I’m sure you can do far better than you will ever do just following the official tips…
A.
Hi Andrew - Excellent call today - back on track!!
ReplyDeleteRegarding the TVB service I follow the selections in a pretty rigid manner and stake in accordance with Andrew's advice. I have tweaked one thing in the last month or so though. Since Andrew confirmed he's working to a 0.25pt to 1pt staking plan a 0.25pt bet for me is 80% of my 0.5pt stake rather than being half. I mentioned to Andrew that some of the 0.25pt bets may contain some nice priced winners (Tatenen, Annacotty, Dashing George) and so it proved again today.
I struggle for time due to work/outside commitments. I've recently moved offices and we have no mobile reception so getting on is a challenge! I seem to be managing ok - sod's law I struggled today! I decided back in November to bet all the mainline selections to a rigid staking plan. I’ve done this to date (aside from the tweak above) and plan to continue in this manner to the end of March. I rarely bet the mentions (I backed Hartside on day 1 so in profit) and have a small bet on the Top Picks. Before last Sunday I had only missed 2 of the Top Picks - you guessed it - the two that won! I have a quick read of the preview over lunch but I’m fairly time constrained pretty much 6 days out of 7.
So what have I learnt from TVB this season? Where I get most benefit is learning about Andrew’s methods and adopting some of these in my own betting strategy. Key words would be Discipline, Specialisation & Value. For example, Andrew is taking a cautious approach due to the heavy ground. Previously I may have carried on regardless but I’ve got a daily reminder at present to be patient! Specialise – to find an angle/edge that others have missed that I can exploit. Value – simply having a thought process where I decide if the odds being offered are attractive in comparison to the race conditions and opposition.
In summary TVB gets me thinking horses and betting. Once end March comes along I’m confident I’ll be in a better place both financially and knowledge wise. That’s the benefit of TVB for me...and it’s fun along the way!
That’s great stuff Neil – thanks for taking the time to comment.
DeleteI think your point about increasing the stake size on 0.25pt bets is very valid…
One of the points I’m trying to make in this thread, is that people shouldn’t feel obliged to slavishly follow my staking system.
I’ve constrained myself because it is easier and more practical for me to do so – however, that doesn’t mean that you all need to be constrained in the same way !
Obviously, increasing all 0.25pt stakes is a way of dealing with it – but personally, I’d be more inclined to introduce some rules, such as increasing it a little if it’s not a saver – or if the odds are above a certain level…
You would still need to be disciplined with your execution (or sods law would likely catch you out !), but it’s a bit like the other Neil was saying last night: what you I think would be best to do, is to try and latch on to something (or things) in the write-up and then use that to justify a slight tweak in the staking.
I’m sure that generally, the results would reward the effort…
A.
Hi all, it's very interesting reading all your thoughts. Iv been with the TVB service from the start and I feel this year the write ups really are completely packed with information and knowledge, the tips really are just a small part of it. I wish I had even more time to analyse everything, there's so much to it, I back all tips to the advised stake though I may have a bit more on if I feel Andrew has put up a very strong case for it, I may also cover the stake on an or has another in the race if it was mentioned in the write up. I back all the top picks to a level 0.5pt value. As for the mentions I probably back 60% of them to something around 0.25pt, I may also do a few small stakes multiple bets with them and others mentioned in the write up, iv had a couple of nice returns with these this season. I fe all the horses mentioned by Andrew are worth keeping your eye on for the next few runs or so.
ReplyDeleteThe service really is ideal to make the NH season enjoyable.
Ciaran
Cheers Ciaran.
DeleteI think you are really reaping the benefit of your TVB experience this season…
I know that like a few others (Liam for example), you have worked hard over the past couple of seasons to try and figure out how to make the best of the output.
There definitely is an element of trial and error – but you are now probably as close as it is possible to get to optimising things (without just cherry picking results, after the event !).
It would be interesting to know how you think you P&L fares against the official one.
My guess is that you beat it by around 50% - just by using the ability you have developed to read between the lines.
I honestly think that such a situation should be achievable for anyone who has the time/inclination to do as you do...
A