I know that one or two of you are intrigued as to how I
manage to find winners (or at least, tips which I hope will win !).
I do my best to let you know, each time I tip one – but to
be honest, there is no simple secret.
I put a lot of time into watching the racing; a lot of time
into making notes; and a lot of time into form study. Put together, that adds
up to a vast amount of time !
Ofcourse, I’m in the fortunate position where I can justify that time...
Collectively, you guys effectively pay me a salary – so I
can view the form study (and write-ups/reviews) as my job.
But how do you go about finding winners if you can’t spend
the time on it that I’m able to ?
I know that a few of you like to study the form; or carry
out statistical analysis – but what other methods do you deploy in the search
for winners…?
With nothing much going on between now and Boxing day, I
thought a few of you might like to share your approaches for winner finding with
the rest of the ‘community’.
Again, I accept that a blog isn’t the ideal platform – but it
seemed to work OK last time, so it will hopefully do the same, this time round.
Hopefully we will get some interesting input – and I may even
let you know the methods I use in the summer months (when I’m not able to justify
spending much time on it all !).
A.
Hi Andrew,
ReplyDeleteI like to do my own form study but time is at a premium....and that's the main difficulty. Weekends are usually when I have more time on my hands but a lot of Saturday races are very competitive or the betting markets have been sucked dry of value. I hardly do any video analysis simply as it takes too long after the daily grind of a full time job. I did create an alert list/notebook using the Weekender results section last NH season but the weekly update and review became too much.
The few "ins" that I like are class, trainer form & course form. I do like class 2, 3 & 4 races, especially at the the likes of Ripon and Thirsk. Any lower class than that and the form can become more unreliable. Put simply if a horse is running in class 3 and it hasn't won or placed in that class in 3+ attempts then it's binned from my selection process (unless it has a progressive profile and the price is right) - there are many variables as you well know!
Secondly I try to focus on a number of trainers that I have had winners from in the past and feel comfortable with...if I know they are in form then all the better.
Thirdly some courses I like and others I can't buy a winner at. I seem to do well at the likes of Chepstow, Cheltenham & Ascot but Haydock is off limits whether it's flat or jumps...I simply can't fathom what type of horse is suited to that course.
For me at present it's race by race analysis mostly at the weekends and big festivals as opposed to finding the right race conditions for a notebook horse... e.g. Loch Ba, Hartside. That suits my time constraints better.
That's the theory. The hard part is maintaining discipline and pushing to find a bet on a Saturday simply because it's the weekend - that's the type of punter the bookies love isn't it! Tbh I think I'm doing ok in that respect at present.
Not sure I have any short cuts but I quite like lower grade races
ReplyDeleteIt's true the form is more reliable at a higher level but the racing can be very competitive
If all the horses are moderate at a lower level it can pay to oppose the lower priced ones that quite often start short but are unreliable
I just take each day as it comes,I usually just have a look for a race I fancy and take it as a puzzle to be solved
Usually class 4 chases but sometimes I fancy a conditional jockeys seller or a class 1 race,I just do what ever I fancy to try to keep things fresh
Obviously a good starting point is a race with a horse I have noted for some reason previously
I start with Timeform and Racing Post ratings then have a look on video and narrow it down to a short list
I then have a price in my head which I think is value
I'm quite obsessive about avoiding the prices or price guide as it can influence me
Sometimes I fancy nothing,sometimes I have a horse which I back purely because it is in my book value and on that wonderful but rare occasion you get a horse which just jumps out and you know it's a cracker
I always think of it as shucking oysters you have to open a lot to find that Pearl but it's a fantastic feeling to find one and the feeling of playing a race out in your head and the result going as you imagined is the nearest I can get to seeing into the future
No matter how many times I get it wrong I kep coming back for more and at least it keeps the old grey cells active whilst the wife watches corrie!
Hi, Like Draquay the feeling you get when an analysed race goes how you thought it would is magic and such analysis has I know led to other potential bets being more obvious along the way, (such as match bets, selling certain horses on the spread etc). Also spotting ahorse where conditions unlikely to suit and still run well is a good to fine future winners. However the level of analysis is tremendous, (for me at least 2 to 3 hours per race and then a top trainer does something unexpected or a horse does something unexpected and you wonder why bother? My biggest problem is having doen all that work I find it hard to not bet and walk away where no value can be found. But I guess this is how we learn. I have learned to trust the Betfair market and use it as a good starting point as to which horses I should really look at in Class 2 and above races when I do decide to put the work in.
ReplyDeleteReal quick fixes I know I and others have used with some success include
Following the first two or three races on a card and then backing winning connections/trainers other selections remaining on the card.
Winners returning to the track within 5 days, (mainly on the flat).
Backing each way 2nd or 3rd favourite in 8 runner races with an odds-on favourite, (sure way to get your account closed but ok in the shops)
Backing stalls 1 and 2 at Chester over 5f when favourite in outside stall and unlikely to get to the front from the start, (amazing but it still works)
I concentrate on Irish racing mostly,I will take a look at the racing the night before and see what races I am interested in,I take a lot of notice in a lower grade race who the best jockey is on,often alot of trainers will wait until they've a top jockey up before they try and win,now I know this is obvious to everyone but you would be surprised how often these type horses are good value.
ReplyDeleteI am not talking about a ruby,geraghty Russell etc.
Its when you have a lower grade race with a sprinkling of up and coming jockeys and some older jockeys who have never made it to the very top.
Also with Willie mullins dominating the Irish scene there can be good each way value on many races but these bets must be placed in shops not online for obvious reasons!
And lastly I like to price up a race myself and if I see a horse much bigger than I had it I just back it simply because it is value in my opinion.
Obviously, I’m not able to put in any where near the time during the summer months – but I still like the occasional bet J
ReplyDeleteAs the other guys have inferred, I think it is vital that people specialise – to a point at least… There is so much racing around during the summer months, I think it would be impossible to cover everything…
My personal areas of ‘specialisation’ are Irish races and better class races (so the racing that appears on terrestrial TV).
I choose the Irish racing because I think it has a more imaginative program – and because it’s not picked over by ‘experts’ in the same way the UK stuff is.
I like the quality racing, simply because I enjoy watching top class thoroughbreds in action…
With regard to finding winners…
I tend to use Top Speed and the RPR ratings in the RP, to help me narrow things down.
I barely use them at all during the winter – but when I’m after a short cut, I think they help…
I also follow a group of around a dozen trainers. The vast majority of my bets will come from the same stables because I get to know the horses – and how the trainers place them.
As is the case with the NH stuff, I think my biggest edge, is gained through watching races and trying to spot things (when time permits !).
I like to play a game of ‘spot the winner 2f out’ – and then see if I’m right !
If I’m not, then maybe there was a reason for it and next time the horse will do better..
That would be about it: a sub-set of races; ratings to narrow the fields; and specific trainers/horses, whenever possible…
I assume from the lack of responses suggesting otherwise, that nobody in here subscribes to Raceform Interactive – or anything similar – and tries to use ratings/trends/stats to find winners..?
I am quite interested in systematic approaches (I’ve actually got 10 years worth of articles by Nick Mordin, on finding winners systematically – not that I ever use them !!) – though I’ve never had the time to explore the area properly…
A
I have never found many shortcuts to picking winners, to be fair I've never found many longer routes to finding winners. When it comes to using ratings/stats to find winners I can't say I'm a fan. I don't like to judge horses or women for that matter by numbers alone. That method has the tendency to leave the good and bad points out and thus all the fun.
ReplyDelete